Taliban Takes Power in Afghanistan: Consequences for Armenia
At first glance, Afghanistan is far from the South Caucasus, but the events taking place there can have a negative impact on socio-economic processes outside its borders.
The seizure of power by the Taliban is fraught with such challenges as the propaganda of terrorism, uncontrolled migration, separatism, and the growth of drug trafficking. All this requires an increase in security measures and the maintenance of law and order. Armenia is no exception.
Experts predict that the victory of the Taliban will inevitably lead to the emergence of a new Islamist movement in the world. In addition, it opens up a new perspective for Turkey's long-term game in the Central Asian region. Turkey may become the only NATO country officially working with the Taliban, who are recognized as terrorists. Time will tell if it will be agreed with the US, or if Turkey will prefer to play its game together with Pakistan and Azerbaijan, in spite of Washington. How strongly the events in Afghanistan will affect Armenia depends on this.
After the withdrawal of the United States, Afghanistan actually comes under the control of Pakistan and its allied China. The incident opens the way for the Pakistanis to Central Asia. The interests of the five nuclear powers now converge in this region: Pakistan, India, China, Russia, and the United States. Iran, whose nuclear technology is also at a high level, can be added to this list.
Meanwhile, positive changes in the Armenian-Pakistani relations are hardly possible in the foreseeable future.
Now the Taliban are starting to work on their international image. But they cannot but kill, they cannot stop growing drugs, stop selling them.
The change of power in Afghanistan will not directly affect the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. If the Taliban succeed in achieving recognition by the world community, then, most likely, they will support Azerbaijan in international and regional platforms. Afghanistan, together with Azerbaijan, participates in a number of regional organizations, including the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the Organization for Economic Cooperation (it includes Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) .
In general, relations between Azerbaijan and Afghanistan will continue after the change of power in Kabul. The Lazurite transport corridor (Lapis-Lazuli corridor: Afghanistan-Turkmenistan-Caspian-Azerbaijan-Georgia) passes through Azerbaijan, which is one of the shortest routes from Afghanistan to Europe.
Meanwhile, the military-political leadership of Armenia and the expert political science community are closely following the events, because the changes in Afghanistan, that will lead to changes in Central Asia and also affect the situation in the Caucasus.