Armenia closes the year with 8% economic decline. External public debt is growing. The ratio of GDP to external debt is already at a dangerous threshold and exceeds 60%. The pressure of debt on the budget is off scale.
The pandemic and the war in Karabakh caused serious damage to the economy of the republic, that is now working to a small fraction of its potential. Disorganization of economic policy and insufficient use of opportunities played a negative role.
The republic needs serious investments, without which it is impossible to pull it out of the current crisis. Economic recovery requires a billion dollars annually over two to three years. We need favorable conditions to investors. We cannot count on funds from European partners so far.
A number of serious challenges are currently facing the republic. Whether the country's government will be able to deal with them is a big question.
Uncertainty in society can spur the population outflow from Armenia. According to experts, the majority will leave for Russia. While the wave of emigration is held back by the coronavirus pandemic and closed borders.
At the beginning of the new year, the activities of the authorities should be of two main directions: ensuring the physical safety of the population and intensive economic growth. A revision of the draft budget for 2021 is expected soon.
Economic growth is possible due to the inflow of Russian-Armenian capital to the republic through cooperation with large Russian, especially high-tech corporations.
It is necessary to restore citizens' sense of security against the Turkish threat. It requires the expansion of the military presence of Russia or the CSTO in Armenia.
It is also possible to deploy additional military bases in Armenia with powerful aviation and missile potential, anti-missile and air defense and electronic warfare. Only on the basis of military stability is economic stability possible.