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Panel Munich discussions on Karabakh: dialogue of the deaf on the verge of another escalation

11:48, Среда, 04 Марта, 2020 года
Panel Munich discussions on Karabakh: dialogue of the deaf on the verge of another escalation

After a panel discussion between the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan and the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev at the Munich Security Conference, the population of Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) expects what will be the first micro-revolution in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Of course, the leaders realize the pointlessness of denying that everyone is already tired of the futile meetings organized to implement the annual plan. Both parties to the conflict are well aware of each other's positions. It’s necessary to find new, peaceful, proactive approaches that will make a significant contribution to a truly productive dialogue building.

The Pashinyan-Aliyev debate in Germany resulted only in bringing some self-satisfaction to the European partners. Both Armenian and Azerbaijani political experts came to the conclusion that according to the results of the event, the organizers themselves were the ones who won the most.

In planning and conducting the public discussion, the German government took less account of the interests of the parties to the conflict. The purpose of the event was to dampen the ardor of Aliyev and Pashinyan and take them down a notch. Against the background of the Syrian boiling pot and unstable Iran, we should admit that the frozen state of the Karabakh conflict quite suits the countries of the European Union.

As well as Armenia, the EU fears that Ankara’s Operation Spring Shield will develop into a large-scale Turkish-Syrian war with far-reaching aims. At the same time, Ankara will once again try to push Azerbaijan to escalate the situation in the South Caucasus.

The current escalation in the Syrian province of Idlib is due to the fact that 33 Turkish troops were killed on the eve of attacks by the Syrian army on attacking militants. Immediately after that, Turkey began to strike at the positions of Syrian government forces. The NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the representatives of US State Department expressed official support for Ankara.

In fact, the only hindrance to Turkey to restore its own order in Syria is Russia, that supports the army of Bashar al-Assad.

Possible escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh can to some extent divert the attention of the Kremlin, where they are not interested in a military solution to the conflict.

The CSTO forces will certainly respond to any manifestation of aggression by Azerbaijan. The European Union, most likely, as usual, will occupy the position of observer.

It is also worth considering that on February 25, as part of the visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Baku, new agreements on military cooperation were signed with Azerbaijan. Erdogan made quite aggressive anti-Armenian statements there, claiming that "Karabakh is Azerbaijan". Most of all, the Armenian government is worried about the supply to Azerbaijan of modern Turkish weapons and military equipment, which Baku cannot acquire from other partners.

The events of April 2016 in Karabakh, that were largely the result of the confrontation between Moscow and Ankara in Syria, are still fresh in our memory.

Nevertheless, it is too early to say whether the events in Idlib will develop strictly according to the escalation scenario, or whether Russia and Turkey will still be able to come to some kind of compromise. Accordingly, the Syrian aggravation does not affect Karabakh.

But above all, over the past month it became obvious the following: relying on the fact that the European Union can contribute to a real settlement of the Karabakh conflict won’t benefit.

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