The conflict on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border has demonstrated the likelihood of a resumption of hostilities.
Azerbaijan and Turkey are completely dissatisfied with the results of the war. During the joint military exercises of the two states held at the combined arms range of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces, special attention was paid to the organization of covert movement and the destruction of sabotage groups. The Turkish General Staff now knows exactly what priority tasks the Azerbaijani Armed Forces will need to solve in the event of a new war with Armenia.
Ilham Aliyev, while continuing to place his main bet on Turkey, is also flirting with the United States, with which the partnership has significantly expanded recently. Hence his constant attacks and accusations against Russia. In turn, the United States seeks to improve relations with Azerbaijan, on the one hand, in order to create constant tension near the borders of Russia, and on the other – to control and direct Turkey's geopolitical activity in the right direction.
Nikol Pashinyan will be pushed to revenge by Western partners-the United States and France. Cooperation with Pashinyan makes it possible to seriously weaken Russia's position in Armenia, and create a zone of tension near the Russian borders.
In the event of a border conflict and Azerbaijan's invasion of Armenian territory, Russia will have to provide assistance to Yerevan in accordance with the CSTO treaty. But then Moscow becomes an opponent of Baku, with which the Russian elite seeks to maintain relations. If Russia distances itself from the conflict, it will mean the complete collapse of the CSTO.