Հոդվածներ

The risk of Armenia losing Artsakh and Syunik is increasing. At the talks in Brussels, Prime Minister Pashinyan makes concessions to Aliyev and agrees to the establishment of a working group to prepare a peace treaty with Azerbaijan on the basis of principles beneficial to Baku. If the agreement is not signed, the beginning of hostilities can be expected in the coming months.

On the line of contact, the Armed Forces of Armenia and the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan are troubled. The military-political leadership of Azerbaijan is probing and moving away red lines step by step: the gas pipeline has been blown up, and the repair and reconstruction brigade has been fired upon; the town of Paruch and most of the height of Karagluh are captured; machine guns are fired at civilians' homes; loudspeakers call on the population to leave their places of residence.

The efforts of the Russian peacekeeping contingent ensure the safety of traffic along the Lachin corridor. Peacekeepers are partially stabilizing the situation. It is impossible to exclude provocations by 100%.

Azerbaijan naturally went on a sharp escalation of the situation in Artsakh after the visit of Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu to Baku. Aliyev's offensive strategy again coincides with Erdogan's interests to strengthen positions in the South Caucasus. In order to become a leading player in the regional political arena, the President of Turkey uses the factor of Ukrainian events, namely the distraction of Russia's military-political leadership to the increasing confrontation with the United States and the European Union. As allies of Turkey within NATO, the leaders of France and Germany encourage Pashinyan to surrender and surrender Artsakh, which will naturally lead to an increase in the appetite of Aliyev and Erdoğan, fraught with claims against Syunik.

If the Prime Minister of Armenia does not succumb to the persuasion of Paris and Berlin for fear of losing power, Erdoğan will begin to provoke Moscow and Yerevan to withdraw peacekeeping forces ahead of schedule in every possible way. New provocations are inevitable, as is the incitement of pro-Turkish forces to anti-Russian sentiment in Armenia.

According to the tripartite statement of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan of November 9, 2020. The period of stay of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation in Karabakh - 5 years with automatic extension for the next 5-year periods, if neither side does not declare 6 months before the expiration of the term of intention to terminate the application of this provision. This time frame does not fit into Ankara's current strategy - to achieve a more influential position in the Caucasus and, in general, in Central Asia, guided by the ideas of Neo-Osmanism and Pan-Turkism.